The Harvest Was Good. So Why Is Maize Meal Still Expensive?

South Africa had a good maize harvest last year. Farm prices fell sharply. But at the supermarket and corner shop, maize meal barely got cheaper. A new government report explains why — and the lesson applies to every shop owner on the continent.

Farm Prices Down, Shop Prices Stuck

South Africa's Competition Commission released its second Cost of Living Report on April 1, 2026. The report tracks prices across the full food supply chain, from the farm to the factory to the shop shelf.

The findings on maize meal are striking. The price of white maize at farm level fell from R22.16 per unit in May 2025 to R14.49 by December 2025. That is a 35% drop. A good harvest brought costs down significantly.

But a 30kg bag of maize meal in shops cost R305.07 in March 2026. A year earlier it cost R347.90. That is a drop of about 12%. The farm price fell three times faster than the shop price.

In November 2025, the producer-to-retail price spread on maize meal reached 37%. The harvest savings were not fully passed to customers.

The Competition Commission calls this a persistent price pressure on households. It means consumers pay more than they should when the underlying cost of food goes down.

What "Rocket and Feather" Pricing Means

The Commission uses the phrase "rocket and feather" to describe what it found. Prices rocket up when costs rise. But when costs fall, prices drift down like a feather — slowly, and only part of the way.

It is not new. Economists have documented this pattern in food markets around the world. But it is especially harmful in lower-income markets where households spend a large share of their income on food staples.

In South Africa, maize meal is the most basic staple. Millions of households eat it daily. When the harvest is good and farm prices fall, those households should feel some relief at the till. The report shows they are not feeling much.

Chicken, Eggs, and Oil: Same Pattern

Maize meal is not the only example in the report.

• IQF chicken pieces: Retail prices rose even as producer prices remained stable at certain points in 2025.
• Eggs: Producer prices dropped in mid-2025, but retail prices fell more slowly and only partially.
• Sunflower oil: Slower to reflect declining input costs at the retail level.

Some categories showed fairer pricing. Canned pilchards and brown bread had margins that tracked costs more closely. But on the biggest volume staples, the pattern held: prices are quicker to rise than to fall.

The Commission noted that not all retailers behave the same way. Discount retailers and some independent shops priced more competitively than the larger chains in certain categories. But across the sector as a whole, the stickiness was clear.

Who Captures the Margin?

The markup happens at multiple points in the chain. Between the farmer and the mill. Between the mill and the wholesaler. Between the wholesaler and the shop. Each layer has some ability to hold its margin when input costs fall.

The Commission is clear that this is a competitive problem. In a more competitive market, a retailer who cuts prices when costs fall would attract customers from rivals who did not. But in markets where a few large players dominate shelf space, that pressure is weaker.

The report does not accuse any retailer of price-fixing. But it says the pattern is consistent enough to warrant ongoing monitoring.

Looking ahead, the Commission flagged a risk: rising diesel and fertilizer costs in 2026 could drive food prices sharply higher again. And if "rocket and feather" pricing holds, those increases will reach customers faster than any future decreases.

What This Means for Your Shop

This report is about South Africa, but the dynamics apply across Africa. Every shop owner on the continent deals with a supply chain where margins are added at each step.

If you run a shop in South Africa

You have an opportunity right now. If your wholesale supplier has not passed on lower maize or grain costs, push them. Larger retailers have been slow to adjust, which means you can price more competitively and pull customers. On high-volume staples like maize meal and cooking oil, a small price advantage over a supermarket drives real foot traffic.

Check your current margin on maize meal and compare it to what you charged six months ago. If your purchase cost went down and your selling price did not, you are holding margin you could use to win customers.

For shop owners across Africa

The lesson here is about understanding your supply chain. When a drought ends, when a harvest is good, when a global commodity price falls, does that saving reach you? And when it does, do you pass it on, or hold the margin?

Your most loyal customers shop with you partly because of price. If you notice your supplier's prices have dropped but you have not reviewed your shelf prices in three months, check now. You may be holding a higher margin than you need.

On the other side: watch your suppliers the same way. If regional grain prices or cooking oil costs have fallen in your area, ask your supplier to reflect that. They may not do it automatically.

Why This Matters

When food prices stay artificially high, customers have less money to spend. That affects every shop owner, not just those selling food. A household that overpays for maize meal buys fewer other things.

The Competition Commission's work puts pressure on large retailers to price more fairly. But for independent shop owners, the competitive opportunity is real: if big chains are slow to lower prices, a smaller shop that tracks its costs closely and adjusts prices quickly can gain market share.

Across Africa, food is often the single largest expense for low-income households. Understanding how price margins work, and using that knowledge to price fairly and attract customers, is one of the most practical tools a shop owner has.

Conclusion

South Africa's Competition Commission has documented what many consumers already suspected: farm prices fell sharply, but shop prices barely moved. The savings were absorbed as margin, not passed on. For shop owners, the message is clear: track your full supply chain, check your own pricing regularly, and use competitive pricing on staples to build customer loyalty when your costs allow it.

Sources

• TimesLive — Cost of living remains high despite easing inflation: Competition Commission (April 2, 2026)
• allAfrica — South Africa: Shops Keep Food Prices High While Farming Costs Drop (April 15, 2026)
• Food For Mzansi — Competition Commission report: Prices drop at farm, but not at tills
• Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr — Competition Commission releases second Cost of Living Report (2026)
• BusinessDay — Rising fuel, fertiliser costs threaten SA food prices, farmers warn (April 14, 2026)