North Africa Is Buying 13% Less Wheat This Year. Bread Prices Should Follow.

The United States Department of Agriculture says North Africa will import about 4 million tons less wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year. That is a 13% drop. Most of it is driven by Morocco. The rest by Tunisia, Algeria, and a small cut by Egypt. For shop owners across the region, the slow knock-on is what to watch on flour, bread, pasta, and biscuits over the next 3 to 6 months.

What the USDA Just Forecast

The USDA published its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on May 12, 2026. It projects that North African wheat imports in the new 2026/27 marketing year will fall to roughly 29 million tons, down from 33.3 million tons the year before. That is the largest one-year drop the region has seen in recent memory.

The reason is simple. Domestic harvests are rebounding after several poor years. According to the Ecofin Agency summary of the USDA report, Morocco alone accounts for most of the import decline.

One thing to keep in mind. These are forecasts. The marketing year starts mid-2026. Actual purchases may come in higher or lower depending on what the harvest delivers and how global prices move. But the direction is clear, and wholesalers across the region are already adjusting their plans.

Morocco Is the Big Mover

Morocco's Minister of Agriculture, Ahmed El Bouari, said in April at the SIAM agricultural fair that the country expects a 2026 cereal harvest of about 9 million tons, or roughly 90 million quintals. That is almost double the prior season, when drought cut the harvest well below normal. Zawya reported the minister's figure, citing Reuters.

The minister called it a forecast, not a finished count. The harvest is still being brought in. But early field reports and the rainfall pattern this past winter back up the optimism. Morocco World News independently confirmed the same figure.

For Moroccan shopkeepers, this matters because Morocco normally imports a huge share of its bread wheat. A bigger home crop means the country's flour mills lean less on world prices. The USDA forecast says Moroccan wheat imports could fall by more than 40% next season.

Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt

Tunisia is also looking at a stronger harvest. The Tunisian Farmers' Union president said on May 13 that this year's cereal output should top last year's, according to Tunisie Numérique. The USDA's local attaché estimates the wheat harvest could climb around 14% and barley by even more.

Algeria is in a similar place. Better winter rains and a state push to grow more grain at home mean the country's wheat import bill is set to ease, even if it stays the region's second largest buyer behind Egypt.

Egypt is the outlier. It still imports about 12.5 million tons of wheat a year, the most of any country in the world. The USDA forecast trims Egypt's imports by only about 5%. Bread is heavily subsidised there, so the change felt by Egyptian shop owners and bakeries will be smaller than in Morocco or Tunisia.

What Changes on Your Shelf

The link between a USDA wheat forecast and a kiosk shelf is not direct. But it is real. Here is the chain that wholesalers and bakers track:

• Flour wholesale prices. When North Africa buys less wheat from the world market, global wheat prices feel slightly less pressure. Local flour mills also have cheaper home wheat to work with.
• Bread cost. In countries where bread is not subsidised, like much of Morocco and Tunisia, bread bakers should see flour costs ease over the next 3 to 6 months.
• Pasta and couscous. Durum wheat is the input. A better home harvest tends to soften prices on packaged pasta, couscous, and semolina at the wholesaler.
• Biscuits and snacks. Factories that make biscuits, breakfast bars, and packaged cakes are big flour buyers. Even small cost cuts at the factory often show up in promo bundles for shops.

One catch. The harvest has to actually land. If late spring rains fail or pests hit, the forecast can swing the other way. The 9 million ton Moroccan figure is a ministry estimate. Real numbers will come in over June and July.

Action Plan for Shop Owners

If you sell bread, flour, pasta, biscuits, or any flour-based food in North Africa, here are five concrete steps for the next 30 days.

1. Ask your wholesaler this week what flour and pasta prices look like for July and August. Some mills already adjust forward-pricing in May. Get any quote in writing.
2. Do not over-stock flour right now. Flour does not store well past 3 to 4 months in warm climates. If prices ease in Q3, you do not want a full storeroom of expensive sacks bought today.
3. Watch the bread price daily for the next 8 weeks. Note the wholesale and retail price in a small notebook. You want a clean before-and-after record so you can negotiate with your supplier.
4. Talk to one factory rep directly if you sell packaged pasta or biscuits. Bypass the wholesaler for one quote. Use that as your benchmark.
5. Plan for two scenarios. If the harvest comes in strong, lean into bread and flour promotions. If late rains hurt the harvest, prices may stick. Either way, do not assume.

Pan-African Ripple

North Africa is the world's biggest wheat-import region. When it buys less, global wheat demand softens. That has knock-on effects for Sub-Saharan Africa too. Bakeries in Lagos, Accra, Nairobi, and Dakar import a chunk of their flour. A lower global wheat price helps all of them.

The wider trade picture is shifting. China dropped tariffs on imports from 53 African countries earlier this month, which firms up some farm-gate prices for African producers. Zambia lifted its maize export ban in April, easing maize supply across southern Africa. Ghana cut diesel but raised cooking gas. Each of these moves changes the cost stack on your shelf.

Why This Matters

Bread, flour, pasta, and biscuits are some of the highest-volume items on a kiosk or grocery shelf in North Africa. They are also some of the most price-sensitive. A 5% move on a 50kg flour sack changes what every bakery on your street can afford. If the USDA forecast is even half right, the next two quarters will be a rare window where shop costs ease, not climb. Most shop owners spend the year reacting to price hikes. This is one of those moments where you can plan around a likely fall instead.

Conclusion

The USDA is forecasting a 13% drop in North African wheat imports for 2026/27, led by Morocco. The numbers are projections, not finished trade, but the home harvest signal is consistent across Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and the USDA balance sheets. For shop owners, the right move is to ask the wholesaler now, watch the bread price weekly, and keep flour stock lean through the summer.

Sources

• USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, May 12, 2026
• Ecofin Agency — North Africa wheat imports expected to decline 13% in 2026/27
• Zawya / Reuters — Morocco expects cereals harvest of 9 million tons in 2026, minister says
• Morocco World News — Morocco expects strong cereal harvest of 90 million quintals in 2026 season
• Tunisie Numérique — Tunisia cereal harvest expected to exceed last year's levels